In the wake of sharp increases in migrants, xenophobic populism comes to Spain

As xenophobic and eurosceptic parties registered large gains in elections throughout Western Europe in recent years, Spain appeared to be an exception, its voters apparently immunized from the appeals of right-wing populism both by the memory of the authoritarian regime of Francisco Franco and the presence on the right of the People’s Party, a successor to the Alianza Popular founded after Franco’s death by one of his ministers. 

But as Sunday’s election for the parliament of Andalucía, the largest of the country’s 17 Autonomous Communities in terms of population, demonstrated, Spain is no longer an exception. Vox, a right-wing populist party founded by former members of the People’s Party in 2013 that received only 0.5 percent of the vote in the 2015 regional election in Andalucía and 0.2 percent of the vote in the 2016 national election, received 11 percent of the vote and 12 of the 109 seats in the parliament.

While Vox no doubt attracted voters for many reasons, one in particular stands out: Its opposition to immigrants, especially Muslim immigrants—a position that has become attractive to more Spanish voters, especially in the southern part of the country, as the flow of arriving migrants has shifted westward from Greece and Italy to Spain. The number of migrants arriving at Spain’s Mediterranean ports has more than tripled this year after more than tripling last year as well. In 2016, approximately 5,500 migrants arrived in Spain. That number jumped to more than 18,000 last year. This year, through Dec. 2, 53,000 have arrived in Spain. That number exceeds by a substantial margin the number who have arrived this year in either Greece (30,000) or Italy (23,000).

In the wake of the westward shift in the arrival of Mediterranean migrants, Vox found a market for its brand of xenophobic, anti-Muslim, eurosceptic populism. And Spain ceased being an exception to the recent European experience. Among other things, Vox wants all illegal immigrants to be deported and wants any immigrant, even those who are in Spain legally, to be returned to the country from which they came if convicted of a crime. Resurrecting the imagery of the Reconquista was, not surprisingly, especially effective in Andalucía.

Andalucía has been governed without interruption by the Socialist Workers Party (PSOE-A) since the first election for the regional parliament in 1982. As the arid landscape with its small villages and modest white-washed homes might suggest, it is one of the poorest regions in the country, in terms of gross regional product per capita, and has one of the highest rates of unemployment, over 20 percent. To a considerable extent, the dramatic increase in support for Vox no doubt reflected the desire among some voters for a change in government after more than three decades of Socialist rule, a desire no doubt reinforced by the dismal state of the economy. Perhaps not surprisingly, support for the Socialists has dropped in recent years, from 40 percent in the 2012 regional election to 35 percent in the 2015 regional election and to 28 percent on Sunday. Perhaps more surprisingly, despite the Socialists’ long tenure in government and the secular decline in their vote, support for the leftist Adelante Andalucía (Forward Andalucía) coalition, comprised of Podemos (We Can) that won 15 percent in the 2015 election and the United Left-Greens that won 7 percent in that election, also dropped, from 22 percent for the two parties in 2015 to 16 percent on Sunday.

The substantial decline in support not only for the Socialists but also for the non-Socialist left means that Andalucía is likely to have, for the first time, a non-left government. But whether such a government can indeed be formed may depend on Vox. The People’s Party, which as recently as 2012 received 41 percent of the vote in the election for the regional parliament, dropped to 27 percent in the 2015 election and to 21 percent of the vote and 26 seats in Sunday’s election. Much of the People’s Party’s loss in 2015 was at the expense of the Ciudadenos (Citizens or C’s) party, a new center-right party founded in Catalonia a dozen years ago, which, running for the first time in the regional election in Andalucia, won 9.5 percent of the vote. On Sunday, the Citizens party nearly doubled its 2015 vote, receiving 18.3 percent of the vote and 21 seats.

Taken together, the People’s Party and Citizens will have 47 seats in the new parliament, nearly as many as the 50 seats the Socialists and Forward Andalucia will have. The problem, of course, is that neither grouping has the 55 seats needed for a majority in the 109-seat parliament. The Socialists, as the largest party, may try to govern without a majority, with or without the participation in the government or support in parliament of Forward Andalucía. But whether any of those possibilities occur will depend on whether the People’s Party, which until June governed in Madrid with the parliamentary support of the Citizens, is willing to seek the parliamentary support of Vox and, if successful, is willing to depend on it for its majority in the parliament. Whatever the outcome, one thing is clear: The fragmentation of the established parties on both sides of the Spanish left-right spectrum has not only given rise to new parties on the left and right but has opened up the electoral marketplace to a new brand of xenophobic populism.

David R. Cameron is a professor of political science and director of the MacMillan Center’s Program in European Union Studies.